Rebuild, remove with buses, remove with rail · 30-year NPV

What replaces it

The design peak load is derived, not asserted: daily boardings times the peak-hour share times the directional split, converted from boardings to link load by average trip length over route-miles, times a peak load point factor, divided by the peak hour factor from the Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual. Bus speed is the City's own target — the 8 mph citywide average from Next Stop: Fast Buses, Better Service raised by that plan's 20% priority-corridor commitment. Rail speed is what New Jersey Transit light rail actually achieves. Buses cannot be coupled, so the busway ceiling is capped by what fits in one vehicle; a two-car railway at a two-minute headway carries half again as many.

Assumptions 🔒 Formulas locked — inputs only

Unit costs — challenge them Every rate is editable

These tables are the whole argument. Open one and type over a cell — the model re-solves instantly. The right-hand columns show what each rate is carrying in the current scenario, its evidence tier, and where it comes from. Grey rows are computed from the rows above them and cannot be typed over.

Where the money goes 2026$, before escalation & financing

Glossary Abbreviations and technical terms

Everything on this page in plain language. Agencies and databases first, then the vocabulary of the model itself.

AASHTO

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Sets the geometric design standards a federally funded highway has to meet when it is rebuilt.

ACS

American Community Survey, the Census Bureau's annual survey. Source of the car-ownership figures.

AWV

Alaskan Way Viaduct, Seattle. The only completed American replacement of an elevated urban freeway, used here as a cost cross-check.

BLS

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source of the household vehicle spending figures.

BQE

Brooklyn-Queens Expressway, Interstate 278. The corridor this model prices.

BQX

Brooklyn-Queens Connector, the proposed waterfront streetcar. One of three surface light rail projects used to benchmark rail capital cost.

CFR

Code of Federal Regulations. Title 23 Part 625 is the design-standards rule that triggers the widening premium.

FHWA

Federal Highway Administration. Source of the national construction cost index and the at-grade reconstruction rate.

FTA

Federal Transit Administration. Publishes the National Transit Database.

GCP

Grand Central Parkway, the corridor's northern end near LaGuardia.

GO bond

General obligation bond, backed by the City's full faith and credit. The March 2026 sale sets the discount rate and coupon used here.

HERS

Highway Economic Requirements System, FHWA's national cost model. Source of the at-grade reconstruct-and-widen rate.

IBX

Interborough Express, the MTA's proposed Brooklyn-to-Queens light rail on an existing freight corridor. Used to sanity-check rail operating cost, but not rail capital, because it is grade-separated.

INFRA / MEGA

Federal discretionary grant programs for large infrastructure projects.

LIRR

Long Island Rail Road. Its Bay Ridge Branch is the freight corridor the Interborough Express would use.

MTA

Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs the region's transit and would operate whatever replaces the highway.

NTD

National Transit Database. Every US transit agency reports cost, service and ridership to it annually. Source of the operating cost, speed, fleet utilization and fare figures.

NYCT

New York City Transit, the MTA agency that runs the subway and city buses.

NYC DOT

New York City Department of Transportation. Owns the BQE through Brooklyn Heights and announced the $4 billion BQE Central program.

NYSDOT

New York State Department of Transportation. Owns much of the rest of the corridor and publishes the bridge records this model measures deck area from.

OCMC

Office of Construction Mitigation and Coordination, the NYC DOT unit that sets how many lanes a project may close.

RPTL

New York Real Property Tax Law. Caps how fast assessed value can follow market value, which is why only part of any property uplift reaches the tax roll.

SBS

Select Bus Service, New York's existing bus rapid transit. Its reported cost and speed are the basis for the busway operating figures.

TCQSM / TCRP

Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual, published as Report 100 of the Transit Cooperative Research Program. The standard reference for how many vehicles an hour a transit station can process.

WAIPR

Weighted Average Item Price Report, NYSDOT's published record of what contractors actually bid per unit of work.

WSDOT

Washington State Department of Transportation, which delivered the Alaskan Way Viaduct replacement.

2026 dollars / constant dollars

A cost stated at today's prices, before adding the inflation that will apply by the year it is actually spent.

Contingency

Money added to a cost estimate for what is not yet known. At a planning stage it is large, because the design is not finished.

Debt service

The annual principal and interest payment on money borrowed to build something.

Discount rate

The rate used to convert future dollars into today's dollars. A dollar spent in 2050 is worth less than a dollar spent now, and this is the exchange rate between them.

Escalation

Construction cost inflation. Because this corridor is rebuilt over thirty years, escalation is one of the largest single forces in the model.

Farebox recovery

The share of operating cost covered by fares. New York bus rapid transit runs about 16%.

Fare capture ratio

What an average boarding actually yields, as a share of the base fare, after transfers, discounted fares and unlimited passes. Here about 20% of $3.00.

Net present value (NPV)

All of a program's costs and revenues over thirty years, converted to a single number in today's dollars. It is how two spending programs on different schedules are compared fairly.

Nominal dollars

Dollars as they will actually be spent, inflation included. Always larger than constant dollars for anything built in the future.

O&M

Operations and maintenance — the recurring annual cost of running and looking after something once it is built, as opposed to the one-time cost of building it. For the highway that is bridge preservation and pavement repair; for transit it is drivers, energy, vehicle maintenance and keeping the stations and running way in service.

Soft cost

Design, engineering, project management and administration — everything on a project that is not physical construction.

At-grade

A road at ground level, neither elevated nor in a cut.

Bridge density

How much bridge structure crosses over a trench segment, expressed per lane-mile of trench. It is what makes a depressed highway cost more than a surface road.

Deck / deck area

The driving surface of an elevated structure and the slab that carries it, measured in square feet. Elevated rebuild cost here is charged per square foot of deck rather than per mile, because a wider viaduct is more deck rather than more expensive deck.

Elevated / viaduct

Highway carried above ground on columns.

Lane-mile

One mile of one lane. A six-lane mile is six lane-miles. Used for pavement and demolition costs, which scale with lanes.

Maintenance of traffic

Keeping vehicles moving through a construction zone: temporary lanes, barriers, signals, signs and detours.

Rehabilitation vs reconstruction

Rehabilitation repairs and extends the life of an existing structure. Reconstruction replaces it. Rehabilitation costs less and buys fewer years, and the model can price the corridor either way.

Right-of-way

The land a road or railway occupies, including the space beside it.

Route-mile

One mile of corridor, regardless of how many lanes or tracks. Used for transit costs, which scale with length rather than width.

Staged construction

Rebuilding half a structure while traffic runs on the other half, then switching. Cheaper than a temporary bypass but slower, and it means working above live traffic.

Substructure / superstructure

Substructure is what holds a bridge up — columns, piers, footings. Superstructure is what it holds up — girders and deck.

Temporary bypass

A temporary roadway built to carry traffic while the permanent structure is replaced, then demolished. Expensive, but it lets the work proceed without years of lane closures.

Trench / depressed highway

Highway running below ground level in an open cut, walled on both sides, with streets bridging over it.

Work zone concurrency

How many separate construction sites are active at once along the corridor.

Articulated bus

A sixty-foot bus with a bending joint in the middle, carrying about 120 people at crush load. What this model prices, not a standard forty-foot bus.

Cars per train / consist

How many rail vehicles are coupled together and driven by one operator. Buses cannot do this, which is the whole capacity argument for rail.

Crush capacity

How many people fit in a vehicle standing, at the peak. Not a comfortable load.

Cycle time

How long one vehicle takes to run the route in both directions and be ready to start again. Route length divided by speed, plus recovery time. It is what determines how many vehicles the service needs.

Design peak load

The number of people who need to pass the busiest point on the line, in the busiest direction, in the busiest hour. Everything about fleet size follows from it.

eBRT

Electric bus rapid transit — battery-electric articulated buses in a dedicated lane with stations, off-board fare payment and signal priority.

Guideway

The running way itself: the pavement a busway runs on or the track a railway runs on, separated from general traffic.

Headway

The time between one vehicle and the next. A two-minute headway means thirty vehicles an hour.

Headroom

How much spare capacity a line opens with, above the demand it is built for. Low headroom means no room to grow without rebuilding.

LRT / LRV

Light rail transit; a light rail vehicle. Street-running electric rail, smaller and cheaper than a subway.

OCS

Overhead contact system — the wires above a railway that supply power, and the poles and hardware holding them.

pphpd

Passengers per hour per direction. The standard measure of a transit line's capacity.

Revenue hour (VRH)

An hour a vehicle spends carrying passengers, excluding time getting to and from the depot. Transit operating cost is measured per revenue hour.

Spare ratio

How many extra vehicles a fleet holds beyond those needed at peak, to cover maintenance and breakdowns.

Traction power

The electrical system that moves an electric railway: substations, distribution and the overhead wires.

TSP

Transit signal priority. Equipment that holds a green light or shortens a red when a bus or train approaches.

VOMS

Vehicles operated in maximum service — how many vehicles are actually out carrying passengers at the busiest moment. Fleet size is this plus spares.

A Measured or published

Taken directly from an agency document, a bid tabulation, or a measurement of the corridor itself.

B Published, adapted

From a published source, but adjusted for this corridor — escalated to 2026 dollars, or drawn from a comparable project elsewhere.

B– Derived from a comparator

Built from a single real project by analogy, where the analogy is defensible but imperfect.

C Analyst's estimate

A professional judgment with no published rate behind it. Reasoned, documented and open to challenge — every one is editable above, and the notes say what each rests on.